Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."